There has been lots of optimism in the Team GB camp this year, that after the valiant performance of the boys to win the Bronze Medal in the final game against Poland, from a goal in overtime from who else than Ashley Tait, that Team GB can now push on to even beat one of Hungary and Slovenia to win silver! In my opinion, we would do very well to repeat that success, and GB fans need to get realistic. I would happily eat humble pie if GB were to pull off a massive upset and get in second place, and the chances of beating Poland now, after the tragedy that has struck the poor country are improved from a couple of weeks ago, but I still don’t see it happening.
#1 Goaltending.
Whilst Stephen Murphy has had a great season for Belfast, in regards to his save percentages, I have seen him get lit up by the Blaze on numerous occasions, and I have sever concerns over his ability to steal a game for GB. With Jody Lehman pretty much out of the equation due to playing in the Playoff Final in Denmark for AaB Aalborg, the burden will rest on Belfast Giants’ Stephen Murphy and Cardiff Devils netminder Stevie Lyle to get these team into a medal position. At the last world championships, Lehman saved a total 134 of 144 shots in the five games that GB played, far more shots than the goalies from Poland face. With the way that a Paul Thompson team plays, Murphy or Lyle are going to be facing around 30-40 shots a game, and especially in the Poland game, Murphy or Lyle can only allow, say 1 in 20 shots on goal to allow GB to have a chance to sneak this game. I am no way criticising Murphy’s great season for the Giants, but I just don’t think he will be able to do as well under the system that Paul Thompson will play, especially after having such a good defence to play behind in Belfast. Lehman saved 31 of 32 shots in the Bronze Medal game at the last world championships, and I just can’t see one of Britain’s goalies being able to pull that off.
#2 Key absences
The Team GB lineup in Torun last year was arguably the best Team GB since the days of having umpteen dual nationals on the team. With Jody Lehman in goal after a great season for the Sheffield Steelers, Shane Johnson and David Phillips on the blueline, along with Greg Owen and Ashley Tait scoring the goals, GB had enough to scrape by the Polish. All five of these players could feasibly not be lining up for GB, with Johnson, Phillips, Owen and Thornton definitely not making the trip to Ljubljana. Lehman and Tait are both in their playoff finals in Denmark and Italy respectively, and if they were to be able to play, they would surely not be at their best after playing a grueling playoff series, and no time to rest. These are key absences for GB, with Lehman’s lose mentioned above. Shane Johnson was a great addition for Team GB, as his no nonsense approach as well as his experience were key for helping out GB’s younger players, and there is no denying the pure talent that David Phillips brought to the team. Greg Owen and Ashley Tait are two great scorers, and have a very underrated two way game, and making sure the forwards track back is key for GB in being able to play a tight defensive game.
Whilst this season has seen the emergence of some great talent, such as Stevie Lee of the Nottingham Panthers, Mark Richardson at the Cardiff Devils, and Craig Peacock of the Belfast Giants, who had 4 goals in 2 games in the two friendlies against the Netherlands, Ashley Tait has been Thommo’s clutch goalscorer for many a season, and he was the one who scored the overtime winner against the Polish this time last season. There is just too much experience lost from last years team to be able to repeat the successes of last season.
#3 The Polish wild card
I’m sure you know about the tragedy that has struck the nation of Poland, with so many people of power dying ironically in a plane crash on the way to visit Katyn. Now, there has been some aftermath by the IIHF and Polish Hockey Federation for the current GB Under 18′s playing in Poland, with no music or celebrations taking place at the event. I feel that this horrible event could either go two ways for the Polish. It could either crush their spirits, and turn up with a ghost of a team and of their former selves, and Britain could defeat them quite comfortably, and take the bronze medal. However, I feel that it will galvanize the team, and make them even stronger mentally, as they try and bring some happiness to their shell-shocked country, and try to restore their national pride. The now deceased President Lech Kaczynski was a fierce patriot, and loved his country, and I can’t help but feel that this will rub off on the team and make them fight tooth and nail to try and bring some success and try to bring some joy to Poland in such a dark time.
As I stated above, if we do go all out and win bronze, I will happily eat humble pie. Call me negative, but I just can’t see how GB are going to be able to win bronze, let alone mount a challenge for Silver.
My predictions.
#1 Slovenia
#2 Hungary
#3 Poland
#4 Great Britain
#5 South Korea
#6 Croatia
I welcome any comments, whether you think I’m completely wrong, or I’m talking sense!
Have your say!